올 비철價 21.8%~36.8% 오른다

Reuters Poll, 해외 분석기관 57개社 전망 조사

2010-01-29     정호근

   로이터(Reuters)는 올 1월 원자재 관련 해외 분석기관 57개사를 대상으로 조사한 2010년과 2011년 비철금속 가격 전망을 발표했다. 로이터는 매년 1월과 7월경 비철금속 등을 내용으로 한 Reuters Poll결과를 발표한다.
이번 발표에 따르면, 올해 대부분 비철금속 원자재 가격은 지난해 대비 21.8~36.8% 상승할 것으로 전망됐다.

다음 내용은 전망기관별 주요 비철금속 품목 세부 가격 예상치다.

단위:$(USD)/tonnes

Aluminum

Copper

Lead

　

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

평균치

$2,146

$2,281

$7,064

$7,433

$2,283

$2,400

중간치

$2,094

$2,226

$7,077

$7,500

$2,252

$2,450

최고치

$2,672

$3,000

$8,818

$9,921

$3,250

$3,240

최저치

$1,650

$1,764

$5,510

$4,850

$1,654

$1,600

　

Nickel

Tin

Zinc

　

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

평균치

$18,287

$19,162

$16,555

$17,800

$2,316

$2,507

중간치

$18,186

$19,069

$16,294

$17,500

$2,293

$2,523

최고치

$22,000

$26,250

$20,000

$24,000

$3,750

$3,220

최저치

$14,750

$15,000

$14,000

$13,500

$1,700

$1,750


기관별 비철금속 원자재 품목 가격전망

단위: USD/tones

Aluminum

Copper

Lead

유관기관

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

ABARE

1,949

     -

6,745

     -

     -

     -

ADMISI Commodities

2,650

     -

7,700

     -

3,250

     -

Analytics Research Co

-

     -

8,157

5,512

     -

      -

Anand Rathi Securitie

2,100

2,400

6,800

6,900

2,250

2,150

Angel Commodities

1,950

2,430

6,850

8,350

2,050

2,480

Antaike

2,150

2,400

7,000

7,400

     -

      -

ANZ

2,206

2,194

7,573

7,812

2,463

2,497

Astmax

2,450

     -

7,800

     -

2,600

2,200

Barclays Capital

2,088

2,300

6,875

7,000

2,188

2,205

BaseMetals.com

2,000

     -

6,500

     -

1,800

     -

BMO Capital Markets

2,094

2,205

7,275

8,157

2,205

2,500

BoA Merrill Lynch

2,025

2,000

7,125

8,000

2,125

     -

Calyon

2,300

2,500

7,500

8,000

2,400

2,700

Canaccord Adams

2,094

1,984

7,165

6,614

2,315

1,984

Central Bank Of Monten

2,072

2,205

6,856

7,209

     -

      -

CIBC

2,094

1,984

7,077

6,614

     -

      -

Commerzbank

2,000

2,200

6,500

7,250

2,150

2,250

CPM Group

2,375

2,535

7,250

7,550

2,445

2,504

Dahlman Rose

2,205

2,425

     - 

      -

     -

      -

Danske Bank

2,000

     -

6,900

　

     -

3,086

Delta Global Advisors

1,984

2,866

6,614

7,716

2,094

2,424

Deutsche Bank

2,204

2,645

6,612

7,714

2,094

     -

Economist Intelligence

2,340

2,375

7,165

7,110

2,370

2,630

Evolution Securities

2,249

2,028

6,063

4,850

2,425

2,205

Fairfax IS

2,000

2,200

8,250

8,500

2,500

     -

Fox-Davies Capital

     -

     -

7,358

7,606

2,254

2,205

Goldman Sachs

2,240

2,230

7,855

7,965

-

     -

Hackett Advisors

2,000

1,900

6,614

6,173

2,000

1,800

HARBOR Intelligence

2,672

3,000

7,773

8,598

-

     -

Investec

1,984

1,984

7,055

7,716

1,984

2,425

JE Gross & Co

1,650

     -

5,510

-

-

     -

Jinrui Futures

2,250

2,650

5,850

6,300

-

2,000

JPMorgan

2,188

1,900

7,100

6,500

2,538

　

LaSalle Futures

2,094

2,205

7,165

7,165

1,654

1,874

Macquarie Bank

1,984

2,094

7,165

7,496

2,039

2,150

MD Commodity Broking S

2,000

1,800

5,800

6,200

1,800

1,600

Metal Bulletin Researc

2,073

2,163

7,475

7,725

2,425

2,538

MF Global

2,250

2,350

7,140

7,875

2,400

2,600

Mitsui Bussan Commodit

2,080

     -

7,017

     -

2,198

2,227

Morgan Stanley

2,161

2,221

7,000

7,165

2,150

     -

Nanhua Securities

2,600

2,200

7,800

7,000

     -

     -

National Australia

2,007

2,173

7,246

8,148

2,440

2,762

Natixis

2,370

2,489

7,885

8,476

2,700

3,240

Numis

     -

-

6,063

6,614

1,874

2,094

Orient Securities

2,400

2,200

7,800

6,800

2,600

2,500

Quantitative Commo

2,400

2,600

7,525

8,750

2,450

2,750

Raw Materials Grou

     -

     -

6,000

     -

     -

      -

RBC Capital Market

1,764

1,764

6,614

7,165

     -

2,500

RBS

2,200

2,400

6,750

7,500

2,250

     -

Scotiabank Group

2,028

2,139

6,834

8,267

2,205

2,315

Shanghai CIFCO

2,400

2,500

6,750

7,250

3,000

3,200

Societe Generale

2,134

2,300

7,435

7,600

2,569

2,750

Standard Bank

2,320

2,510

7,375

7,900

2,420

2,450

Standard Charter

1,888

1,950

6,700

7,500

2,250

2,300

Star Futures

1,975

2,320

7,500

7,300

2,450

2,570

T&K Futures & Opti

     -

     -

8,818

9,921

     -

      -

TD Newcrest

2,006

2,050

6,614

7,496

1,654

1,654

VM Group

1,985

2,652

6,970

7,788

2,087

2,794

VTB Capital

1,950

2,250

6,450

7,500

     -

      -

　

Nickel

Tin

Zinc

ABARE

18,500

     -

       -

     -

1,940

     -

ADMISI Commodities

21,450

     -

       -

     -

3,750

     -

Anand Rathi Securitie

19,000

18,000

       -

      -

2,150

2,350

Angel Commodities

16,100

19,750

14,600

18,250

2,200

2,600

ANZ

18,785

19,069

17,068

17,494

2,507

2,510

Astmax

19,500

     -

18,500

     -

2,650

     -

Barclays Capital

20,375

25,000

18,013

18,500

2,300

3,000

BaseMetals.com

16,500

     -

15,000

     -

1,700

     -

BMO Capital Markets

18,188

17,637

       -

      -

2,425

2,646

BoA Merrill Lynch

20,000

18,000

       -

      -

2,125

2,750

Calyon

20,000

24,000

20,000

24,000

2,325

2,600

Canaccord Adams

17,086

16,535

       -

      -

2,315

2,205

CIBC

16,116

15,432

       -

      -

2,293

2,205

Commerzbank

17,400

19,600

15,650

16,950

2,200

2,350

CPM Group

18,600

17,650

15,935

15,705

2,650

2,965

Dahlman Rose

18,739

19,841

       -

      -

     -

     -

Danske Bank

20,250

     -

       -

     -

2,225

     -

Delta Global Advisors

17,637

20943.7

       -

      -

2,205

3086.4

Deutsche Bank

18183

20938

14,546

16530

2314

2865

Economist Intelligenc

18,519

20282.3

15,344

15652.7

2248.7

2535.3

Evolution Securities

17,637

15432.2

      -

      -

2,646

2204.6

Fairfax IS

20,000

22000

      -

      -

2,500

2500

Fox-Davies Capital

17,361

17636.8

17636.8

18739.1

2,646

2535.3

Goldman Sachs

17,245

17135

      -

      -

2,540

2735

Hackett Advisors

16,000

15000

14000

13500

1,800

1750

Investec

17,637

19842

      -

       -

1,984

2535

Jinrui Futures

      -

      -

      -

       -

1,935

2200

JPMorgan

16,750

16000

15125

15000

2,538

2100

LaSalle Futures

16,535

17085.7

17650

       -

2,205

2204.6

Macquarie Bank

17,637

15983.5

15377

15432.3

1,929

2039

MD Commodity Broking

20,000

23000

18000

21000

2,100

2500

Metal Bulletin Resear

19,600

20125

17688

18500

2,538

2775

MF Global

19,000

20500

16500

17800

2,300

2500

Mitsui Bussan Commodi

17,870

     -

16250

     -

2,290

     -

Morgan Stanley

17,306

17443.9

15295.5

16038.5

2,127

2270.7

National Australia Ba

17376

19310

      -

       -

2,439

2732

Natixis

19,340

19340

      -

       -

2,800

3220

Numis

15,432

18188

      -

       -

1,874

2094.4

Orient Securities

22,000

18000

17500

15000

2,800

2500

Quantitative Commo

19,300

22000

18000

22000

2,600

2900

Raw Materials Grou

16,000

     -

      -

     -

2,100

     -

RBC Capital Market

15,432

15432.4

      -

       -

1,764

1763.7

RBS

14,750

17000

15000

16750

1,975

2150

Scotiabank Group

17,527

17636.8

      -

       -

2,094

2314.8

Shanghai CIFCO

21,000

21000

19000

19000

3,000

3200

Societe Generale

21,210

22800

15704.5

17500

2,437

2610

Standard Bank

18,875

22300

17300

20200

2,330

2550

**Standard Charter

16,500

17000

14375

15000

2,090

1900

Star Futures

       -

      -

      -

      -

2,600

2750

TD Newcrest

17,637

16534.5

      -

      -

1,874

2094.4

VM Group

20,375

26250

16293.8

19854.2

2,217

2895.8
자료제공:로이터, 우리선물