해외 주요 전망기관 비철價 전망[표]

2010-03-23 정호근

	Unit	2009	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	2010	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Copper	New	c/lb	234	325	360	340	340	341	360	380	340	320	350	300	270	270	260
$/tone	515,874	716,492	793,652	749,561	749,561	751,765	793,652	837,744	749,561	705,469	771,607	661,377	595,239	595,239	573,193
Old	c/lb	234	300	320	340	340	325	360	360	340	300	340	260	250	250	240
$/tone	515,874	661,377	705,469	749,561	749,561	716,492	793,652	793,652	749,561	661,377	749,561	573,193	551,148	551,148	529,102
	%chg	-	8.30%	12.50%	0.00%	0.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5.60%	0.00%	6.70%	2.90%	15.40%	8.00%	8.00%	8.30%
Aluminium	New	c/lb	75	96	100	90	82	92	90	95	95	100	95	100	105	110	120
$/tone	165,344	211,641	220,459	198,413	180,776	202,822	198,413	209,436	209,436	220,459	209,436	220,459	231,482	242,505	264,551
Old	c/lb	75	90	90	90	90	90	95	95	95	95	95	100	105	110	120
$/tone	165,344	198,413	198,413	198,413	198,413	198,413	209,436	209,436	209,436	209,436	209,436	220,459	231,482	242,505	264,551
	%chg	-	6.30%	11.10%	-	-8.90%	2.10%	-5.30%	-	-	5.30%	-	-	-	-	-
Zinc	New	c/lb	75	104	110	90	85	97	95	100	105	110	103	130	115	100	100
$/tone	165,344	229,277	242,505	198,413	187,390	213,845	209,436	220,459	231,482	242,505	227,073	286,597	253,528	220,459	220,459
Old	c/lb	75	90	85	85	90	88	90	90	95	95	93	100	100	90	90
$/tone	165,344	198,413	187,390	187,390	198,413	194,004	198,413	198,413	209,436	209,436	205,027	220,459	220,459	198,413	198,413
	%chg	-	15.20%	29.40%	5.90%	-5.60%	11.00%	5.60%	11.10%	10.50%	15.80%	10.80%	30.00%	15.00%	11.10%	11.10%
Nickel	New	c/lb	670	900	1,050	950	900	950	875	875	875	875	875	850	800	800	850
$/tone	1,477,075	1,984,131	2,314,820	2,094,361	1,984,131	2,094,361	1,929,016	1,929,016	1,929,016	1,929,016	1,929,016	1,873,902	1,763,672	1,763,672	1,873,902
Old	c/lb	670	775	800	825	800	800	725	725	725	725	725	720	750	800	800
$/tone	1,477,075	1,708,557	1,763,672	1,818,787	1,763,672	1,763,672	1,598,328	1,598,328	1,598,328	1,598,328	1,598,328	1,587,305	1,653,443	1,763,672	1,763,672
	%chg	-	16.10%	31.30%	15.20%	12.50%	18.80%	20.70%	20.70%	20.70%	20.70%	20.70%	18.10%	6.70%	-	6.30%
Lead	New	c/lb	77	101	105	100	90	99	100	100	110	110	105	120	115	90	80
$/tone	169,753	222,664	231,482	220,459	198,413	218,254	220,459	220,459	242,505	242,505	231,482	264,551	253,528	198,413	176,367
Old	c/lb	77	95	90	90	95	93	95	95	100	100	98	105	100	80	80
$/tone	169,753	209,436	198,413	198,413	209,436	205,027	209,436	209,436	220,459	220,459	216,050	231,482	220,459	176,367	176,367
	%chg	-	6.20%	16.70%	11.10%	-5.30%	7.00%	5.30%	5.30%	10.00%	10.00%	7.70%	14.30%	15.00%	12.50%	-
Tin	New	c/lb	614	766	800	700	700	741	700	700	700	700	700	600	550	550	600
$/tone	1,353,618	1,688,716	1,763,672	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,633,601	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,322,754	1,212,525	1,212,525	1,322,754
Old	c/lb	614	690	700	700	700	698	700	700	700	700	700	600	550	550	600
$/tone	1,353,618	1,521,167	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,538,804	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,543,213	1,322,754	1,212,525	1,212,525	1,322,754
	%chg	-	11.0%14.3%	-	-	6.30%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.004

(3월 22일자로 가격 전망치 수정, New 수정된 전망치, Old는 기존 전망치)

Barclays Capital 비철금속 가격전망치
Forecasts	Aluminium	Copper	Lead	Nickel	Tin	Zinc
US$/t	Usc/lb	US$/t	Usc/lb	US$/t	Usc/lb	US$/t	Usc/lb	US$/t	Usc/lb	US$/t	Usc/lb
2010	2,056	93	6,900	313	2,198	100	20,125	913	17,825	808	2,150	98
Q1 E	2175	99	7,200	327	2,240	102	20,000	907	17,500	794	2,300	104
Q2	2400	109	7900	358	2450	111	21500	975	18500	839	2500	113
Q3	1,800	82	6,500	295	2,000	91	20,000	907	17,800	807	1,900	86
Q4	1850	84	6000	272	2100	95	19000	862	17500	794	1900	86
2011	2300	104	7000	317	2200	100	25000	1134	18500	839	3000	136
2012	2,500	113	8,500	385	2,500	113	30,000	1,361	20,000	907	3,500	159
Long Term	3200	145	6000	272	1700	77	17500	794	14500	658	2000	91

Goldman Sachs 비철금속 가격전망치 2010-03-17 기준
품목	단위	3개월 후	6개월 후	12개월 후
Copper	$/mt	7,850	8,045	7,825
Aluminum	$/mt	2,315	2,285	2,165
Zinc	$/mt	2,670	2,555	2,590
Nickel	$/mt	17,575	17,655	17,155

자료:조달청 원자재비축과